State of the Market|Reading the Psychology of the market

Are you feeling bullish or bearish? Because that’s what lead to interpretation of charts. Let me give you one illustration. What’s your view on S&P 500?

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A 25 bps hike in the repo and reverse repo rates is expected. Will RBI just take this small baby step or will do something drastic to tame inflation? Will Nifty hold on to 5380-5400 or sell off?

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After impressive last week for bulls, we are about to enter event heavy week - RBI monetary policy, F&O expiry and more earnings. Events do not change the trend of the market but they can make the market choppy. One should be bullish but be prepared for random action this week

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How can market breakout? Valuations are stretched. There is divergence on the charts. RBI is going to raise rates. Astrologers are saying market will go down. Well - Market will do it has to do i.e. to move in the direction that will cause maximum pain to maximum people.

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5400 is acting like a dead end. Good news, bad news - it doesn’t matter. The market is just not able to find enough strength to go past 5400. But dead end does not mean market may collapse from here. One of the reason I am not bearish on the market: markets do not collapse after putting up posters. Markets do not give signals like - Please sell as 5400 is peak. Numbers like 5400 or 5000 can best act as psychological barrier.

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Nifty has been trading strong and trying hard to cross over 5400. But global setup and local nervousness is preventing the market to quickly cross over. Bears on other hand are hoping for accident and steep fall. Let us see what happens. Nifty keep trying

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